Wall Street’s midterm cheer has split in two overnight. The Dow is still being given the benefit of a divided Washington, but the Nasdaq is being asked to pay for a chip hangover that Asia started and Qualcomm made harder to ignore.
The situation right now
Dow futures are up about 0.6% near 53,830, S&P 500 futures are only a touch higher near 7,733, and Nasdaq 100 futures are down about 0.5% near 28,425. Russell 2000 futures are firmer by around 0.7%. That points to a two-speed start when US cash trading opens at 14:30 UK time: cyclical and smaller names still carrying Wednesday’s relief, while the tech-heavy end of the market digests another night of selling.
Europe has kept a calmer tone. The FTSE 100 is up about 0.8% near 10,913, the DAX is up a similar amount near 26,644, and the Stoxx 600 is higher by roughly 0.6%. The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, sits near 16.8 after Wednesday’s sharp crush. Volatility has not returned to panic levels, but it has stopped falling.
What changed since this morning
At dawn UK time, Nasdaq futures were down closer to 0.9% and S&P futures were also lower. Since then the S&P has clawed back into positive territory and the Dow has extended its lead, but the Nasdaq remains in the red. Gold is still near $4,145 an ounce, holding most of the overnight rip, while Brent has bounced to around $96 after Wednesday’s crash of more than 8%. That oil rebound is modest against the weekly damage and is not what is driving the US tape into the open.
The political read has not flipped. Markets still like the idea of a Congress that will struggle to push through big new spending. What has changed is the willingness to treat every AI-linked name as a winner of that backdrop. Investors are separating hyperscalers from the chip and infrastructure complex that actually has to build the capacity.
The biggest US market story: chip hangover after the midterm rally
The clearest US story into the cash open is not another read of the election. It is that the semiconductor trade is still under pressure while the rest of Wall Street tries to keep Wednesday’s relief alive. Qualcomm is down about 9% before the open after missing Wall Street estimates for fourth-quarter smartphone chip sales. Handset revenue fell 26% to $5.14 billion, short of the $5.25 billion analysts had expected, with weaker phone demand and declining Apple-related modem sales doing the damage, according to Reuters.
Qualcomm’s wider quarter was not a collapse. Adjusted sales still beat estimates, and the company says non-handset revenue, including data-centre chips, can grow about 60% in fiscal 2027 as Apple drops out of the model. The market is not in a forgiving mood. Arm is down around 4% in extended trading. Micron, Marvell, Intel, Broadcom and Dell are all lower. CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN, often used as a gauge of AI infrastructure stress, are also down.
UBS strategists told clients that pauses on data centres could put around 30% of expected 2028 additions at risk. That is a headwind for chipmakers and builders, even if a lot of the fear is already in the price. The twist is that Amazon, Meta and Alphabet are each up around 1% before the open. A slower build-out can look like discipline if you already hold the platforms that buy the chips. Nvidia is only modestly lower after Wednesday’s drop, which suggests the selling has narrowed rather than turned into a blanket purge.
Stocks moving before the open
AppLovin is the standout gainer, up close to 20% after a third-quarter profit beat. Amazon is up about 1.5%, with Meta and Alphabet each up around 1%. Apple is slightly higher. MSFT is little changed.
On the losing side, Qualcomm leads the damage. Snap is down about 9% after missing third-quarter revenue estimates, and Fair Isaac is off around 8% after a profit miss. Tesla is down about 1.7% and SpaceX about 1%, extending the Texas political discount from Wednesday, when Democrats took the Senate seat and the governorship in the state that hosts both companies. AMD has given back some of Wednesday’s post-results bounce and is down around 2.7% before the open.
FX and the dollar
The dollar index is roughly flat near 101.6 after Wednesday’s slide. Euro-dollar is around 1.122 and sterling sits near $1.345 ahead of the Bank of England decision at 12:00 UK. Dollar-yen is little changed near 158.4. Sterling’s next move depends less on the widely expected quarter-point rise to 4.00% than on the vote split and Governor Bailey’s tone at the 12:30 press conference. That is a UK rates event for FX desks, not the lead for US equity futures.
Bonds
Treasury yields remain below Wednesday’s levels even if the overnight plunge has steadied. The 10-year yield is near 4.89%, the two-year around 4.60%, and the 30-year near 5.27%. UK 10-year gilt yields have eased to about 5.11% into the Bank decision. Markets are still pricing a high chance of another Federal Reserve hike in December, so today’s Fed speakers matter for the US curve even if the Bank of England dominates the London afternoon headlines.
Commodities
Gold futures are up close to 1.8% near $4,145 an ounce, and silver is higher by about 1.1%. The metal is holding the haven support that followed the midterm result and the weaker dollar overnight. Brent is up about 1.9% near $96 and US crude about 1% near $89. That is a bounce after Wednesday’s collapse, not a fresh geopolitical spike. Unverified overnight claims about tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have not produced a breakout move, and weekly oil prices are still deeply lower.
Today’s remaining catalysts
The Bank of England announces its rate decision at 12:00 UK, with Bailey speaking at 12:30. US initial jobless claims and the preliminary third-quarter productivity and unit labour cost figures follow at 13:30 UK, with claims expected near 197,000. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speak through the US morning. The cash open is at 14:30 UK. Natural gas inventory data may arrive mid-afternoon US time. After the close, attention turns to results from ConocoPhillips, Airbnb, Monster Beverage and Cloudflare, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks later in the evening. Friday’s October employment report remains the week’s main US labour test.
Levels traders are watching
For the S&P 500, Wednesday’s close of 7,688.62 is the first reference. Futures already imply a small gap above it; a fade back through that close would suggest the midterm relief is thinning. For the Nasdaq Composite, Wednesday’s close near 25,737 is the line that matters after Asia’s chip selling. Dow futures above the cash close of 53,356 keep the cyclical lead intact. In semiconductors, Qualcomm’s reaction around the mid-150s will show whether the miss is a one-stock event or the cue for another leg lower in the group. For gold, holding above $4,100 keeps the overnight break in play. For Brent, $100 remains a distant ceiling after Wednesday’s crash; the nearer watch is whether the bounce holds above $95.
Where this leaves us
The balance of evidence leans mixed rather than outright bearish for US stocks today. The Dow and Russell are still being supported by the idea of a Washington that will struggle to pass large new spending. Bond yields are lower than Wednesday’s peaks, Europe is firm, and the biggest consumer platforms are higher before the open. That is not a market in full retreat.
The weak spot is concentrated and important. Chips and AI infrastructure are still being sold, and Qualcomm has given that selling a fresh fundamental reason. Asia already showed how quickly the semiconductor complex can reverse when regulation and demand fears combine. The opportunity for patient traders is in watching whether the Nasdaq can stabilise once cash trading starts, or whether the Dow’s lead simply marks a rotation away from the names that led the past two years.
The view would change if jobless claims or the Fed speakers push December hike odds sharply higher, because that would lift yields and hit both the Dow’s relief narrative and the Nasdaq’s valuation case at once. A move in S&P futures back below Wednesday’s cash close, or Nasdaq futures accelerating through overnight lows, would argue that the midterm rally was a one-day event. A stabilisation in Qualcomm and the wider chip group after the open would suggest the miss has been absorbed.
The markets to watch are Nasdaq futures and the semiconductor complex for whether the hangover deepens, Dow futures for whether cyclical relief survives the cash open, Qualcomm as the single-stock test of phone-chip demand, gold for haven appetite, and Treasuries for the Fed path into Friday’s jobs report. For beginners, today is a reminder that a strong overnight political story can still leave parts of the market under pressure if earnings and sector positioning disagree. The first reaction to a midterm result is rarely the final one. If you want to understand how you would handle a morning like this, the Samuel & Co Trading Assessment is a good place to find out where your trading stands.
