US Open Market Brief, Friday 25 September 2026.
Hormuz deal talk is not the story into the New York cash open any more. Oil has already fallen on it and the market has moved on. What matters before the weekend is whether August durable goods orders, due at 13:30 UK, can bring US yields down. The US 10-year yield is still above 5%, oil is lower but still high, and equity futures are a little firmer into the London lunch.
This morning’s brief said yields were holding high while oil eased, and Markets Made Clear covered the Hormuz oil move and the fact that bond yields barely reacted. Europe’s data for the day is done: German GfK consumer confidence, Spain’s final GDP and euro-area M3. Thursday’s US jobless claims came in at 197k, which is background now rather than something that moves markets today. So the question into the open is simple: do durable goods bring yields down, or do high yields keep weighing on the Nasdaq into the first hour and the weekend?
The Situation Right Now
At London midday, equity futures are firmer while bond yields stay high. S&P 500 futures are near 7,786 and Nasdaq 100 futures near 30,927, both up from Thursday’s weaker levels. That looks like positioning ahead of US data, not a celebration of lower oil. Dow futures near 51,803 are firmer too. The FTSE 100 near 10,693 is little changed now that Europe’s morning data is out of the way. The US 10-year yield near 5.175% is still above 5%, with the session high near 5.20%. The dollar index near 101.05 is lower on the day but still above 101. The VIX near 15.3 is calm. WTI crude is near $93.11, down about 1.6% on the day but well above $90, and Brent is near $105.64, down about 0.9%. Oil is down on Hormuz deal talk, but it is still high.
What Changed Since This Morning?
Five things matter going into the open.
First, the Hormuz oil drop is not new. WTI is still in the low to mid $90s and Brent is still above $105. With WTI nowhere near $90, it would be wrong to call oil cheap, and Tuesday’s idea that falling oil would ease inflation worries is not today’s story.
Second, US yields are still above 5%. The 10-year near 5.175% has not fallen back into the London lunch. Futures can rise and high yields can still weigh on stocks at the open.
Third, equity futures are firmer into lunch. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are above Thursday’s weaker levels without any help from Europe. That is positioning before durable goods, not a change in the bigger picture.
Fourth, Europe’s data is done. GfK at −30.6, Spain’s final GDP and euro-area M3 at 3.5% have been absorbed, and none of it gives Europe a clear lift. EUR/USD near 1.140 and GBP/USD near 1.325 reflect a slightly weaker dollar rather than strong European demand.
Fifth, durable goods have not been released yet at the time of writing. US Advance Durable Goods Orders for August are due around 13:30 BST. Forecasts point to a headline fall of about 0.3% to 0.4% after July’s 1.1% rise, with orders excluding transportation expected up about 0.6%. The US cash open is around 14:30 BST, and the University of Michigan final September sentiment reading is around 15:00 BST, which matters less. Thursday’s claims at 197k are already out. If durable goods are out by the time you read this, judge the conclusion against the actual number.
The Biggest US Market Story
The main story into the open is whether August durable goods are weak enough to bring yields down, so that firmer futures can carry into a calmer weekend, or whether strong core orders keep upward pressure on yields and weigh on rate-sensitive stocks while oil stays high.
Oil fell on Hormuz deal hopes after comments from Iran’s foreign minister Araghchi, and that move was already covered this morning. Earlier in the week, WTI near $90 eased one inflation worry a little. That relief is not back while WTI holds in the low to mid $90s and Brent stays above $105. Bond yields did not fall much on the oil move and stayed above 5%. Japanese finance minister Katayama’s comments on the yen and the Bank of England’s Bailey on energy prices are secondary today. The Trump–Xi dinner is diplomacy, not a market driver for this afternoon. For the open, the real question is yields: does a weaker headline durable goods number pull the 10-year down from 5.17–5.20%, or does a firm reading on orders excluding transportation and core capital goods keep yields high into the open?
Stocks Moving Before The Bell
US equity futures are firmer, not euphoric. S&P 500 futures near 7,786 and Nasdaq 100 futures near 30,927 are above Thursday’s weaker levels, waiting on durable goods with yields above 5%. Rate-sensitive stocks will follow the 10-year near 5.18% and whatever durable goods do to the dollar in the first half hour. Energy stocks will stay tied to crude, which is still well above $90. In Europe, the FTSE 100 near 10,693 has already absorbed the morning’s data.
FX & Dollar
The dollar index near 101.05 is lower on the day but still above 101. High yields and oil above $90 have not pushed the dollar sharply lower. EUR/USD near 1.140 shows modest support for the euro after the data, nothing more. GBP/USD near 1.325 is higher on the day. USD/JPY near 157.8 is lower than earlier in the week. Watch the dollar around the durable goods release more than any single move in oil. A weaker headline that brings yields down would test whether the dollar index falls further below 101, while a firm core capital goods reading would keep the dollar supported into the first hour of US trading.
Bonds
The US 10-year yield near 5.175% is the main thing to watch in bonds into the open. Oil is still high, so the bond rally that sometimes comes when WTI drops toward $90 is not on offer, even after the Hormuz move. With Brent above $105 and durable goods still to come, bonds are not pricing in an easy weekend. The University of Michigan final reading matters less, unless durable goods have already changed the direction of yields.
Commodities
WTI near $93.11 and Brent near $105.64 are lower on deal talk but still high. Gold futures near $4,342 are higher as the dollar eased. Oil is not the main story into the open. Durable goods and what they do to yields are.
Today's Remaining Catalysts
Times in BST. ~13:30: US Advance Durable Goods Orders for August (forecast headline roughly −0.3% to −0.4% after July +1.1%; excluding transportation roughly +0.6%). This is the release that decides whether US yields ease into the weekend or stay above 5% and keep pressure on stocks at the open. Not yet released at the time of writing. ~14:30: US cash open. ~15:00: University of Michigan September final sentiment (less important). Thursday’s claims at 197k are already out. If durable goods are out by the time you read this, judge the conclusion against the actual number.
Levels Traders Are Watching
Reference areas, not targets. WTI ~$93.11 / Brent ~$105.64. S&P 500 futures ~7,786; Nasdaq 100 futures ~30,927; Dow futures ~51,803. FTSE 100 ~10,693. Dollar index ~101.05; EUR/USD ~1.140; GBP/USD ~1.325; USD/JPY ~157.8. US 10-year ~5.175% (session high near 5.20%). Gold ~$4,342. VIX ~15.3.
Into the bell, the market cares less about whether Hormuz deal talk is still new and more about whether durable goods can bring the 10-year yield back below 5% before the weekend. Futures are firmer. Europe’s data is done. Oil is lower but still high. The release that matters is at 13:30.
This is Samuel & Co Trading’s assessment of the market, not a call to buy or sell anything.
What would change the view: a clearly weaker durable goods number, especially if core capital goods cool along with the headline, that brings yields down into the first hour and the weekend. Or a firmer reading excluding transportation and on core capital goods that keeps yields high while WTI stays well above $90 and Brent above $105. On oil: WTI dropping back toward $90 without new Gulf headlines would bring back some relief on inflation worries, while WTI pushing back through the mid $90s, or Brent holding in the mid $100s as the 10-year yield rises, would keep pressure on the Nasdaq into Monday.
Markets to watch: durable goods at 13:30; S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures through the first US hour; the 10-year yield between 5.15% and 5.20%; WTI against $90; the dollar index around 101; the University of Michigan final reading after the durable goods release.
If you want a structured read on how you personally handle weeks like this, with oil lower but still high, durable goods still ahead and US yields above 5% under firmer futures, take the free trader assessment at https://assessment.samuelandcotrading.com/ and use it as a mirror for your process, not a signal.
