Wall Street’s technology complex just suffered its worst week in roughly a year and a half, and Asia opened Monday still carrying the hangover. Chip-heavy markets in Tokyo and Seoul sold off hard at the open before clawing most of it back, while US equity futures have turned higher after crude slipped on talk that Washington is pausing or waiving tough new Russia energy sanctions. Softer oil is buying risk appetite a breather. Whether that lasts through a week stacked with Tesla, Meta, Netflix and SpaceX earnings is the real test.
The 60-Second Market View
The mood overnight is relief, not repair. S&P 500 futures are up about 0.8 per cent near 7,767 and Nasdaq 100 futures are up about 1.3 per cent near 29,775 after Friday’s session left the S&P 500 down 1.1 per cent at 7,659.44, the Nasdaq Composite down 2.1 per cent at 26,140 and the Dow off 0.3 per cent at 52,002. The VIX closed near 20 after jumping more than 21 per cent on the day. Japan’s Nikkei is down about 0.8 per cent near 64,791 after opening more than 2 per cent lower, South Korea’s KOSPI is up about 0.7 per cent near 5,705 after a similarly weak open, Shanghai is little changed near 3,722 and Australia is up about 0.3 per cent near 8,831. Hong Kong is closed for the Chung Yeung Festival.
The US 10-year Treasury yield is near 5.07 per cent and the 2-year near 4.72 per cent after the 10-year posted its largest weekly fall in more than eight months. The dollar index is steady near 101.82, sterling is near $1.333, the euro near $1.123 and the yen close to 158 per dollar. Brent crude has slipped about 1.9 per cent to near $107.81 and West Texas Intermediate about 1 per cent to near $100.35. Both are giving back part of last week’s surge but remain elevated. Gold futures are near $4,200 and silver is up about 1 per cent near $57.88.
The Big Story: Softer Oil Opens a Bounce After Tech’s Worst Week in Months
Friday closed one of the ugliest weeks technology investors have sat through since early 2025. The Nasdaq-100 fell roughly 5.5 per cent on the week and the S&P 500 about 2 per cent, as investors started to price the cost of financing artificial-intelligence infrastructure rather than just the demand for it. Credit stress around heavy AI spenders put a chill through the complex, the VIX spiked toward 20 and sentiment gauges tipped into extreme fear. That is the hangover Asia woke up to on Monday.
What changed overnight was oil, not chips. President Trump signalled a pause or waiver of tough new Russia energy sanctions measures, citing national interest and pressure on diesel and energy prices, with officials talking about a window of up to 60 days to assess. Brent gave back nearly 2 per cent toward $108 and WTI eased toward $100. US equity futures, which had been soft into the weekend, bounced hard as the market read cheaper crude as a temporary relief for inflation and consumer spending. The bounce is real. The waiver messaging has also been mixed, and the underlying energy risk from the Middle East has not gone away, so this is softer oil, not a free-fall.
Why it matters for Monday is the calendar stacked behind it. Tesla, Meta, Netflix and SpaceX report this week, alongside roughly 15 per cent of the S&P 500. Those results will decide whether investors still believe the AI spend story can fund itself, or whether Friday’s credit fears were the start of something stickier. The Federal Reserve is in blackout ahead of the 27 to 28 October meeting, so there will be no official voice to talk markets through any wobble. China did its bit overnight: third-quarter GDP grew 4.5 per cent year on year, a touch above the 4.4 per cent expected, with industrial production and retail sales also beating, but fixed-asset investment remains deeply weak and markets barely shrugged. The beat bought almost no risk-on.
The implications cut both ways. Softer oil and a futures bounce give Europe a calmer open than Friday’s close deserved. But Asia’s chip complex still needed a deep early dip before buyers appeared, which says the AI financing scare has not been washed out. Europe futures were indicated a touch softer into the cash open, with weekend cost-of-living unrest in France adding a little weight to the euro tone. Black Monday anniversary chatter that swirled over the weekend has faded as futures moved higher. What to watch: whether Nasdaq futures hold their overnight gains into New York, whether Brent stays soft near $108 or reclaims last week’s highs, and how Tesla and Meta sound on capital spending when they report midweek.
What Happened Overnight?
Wall Street finished Friday under heavy pressure. The S&P 500 fell 1.09 per cent to 7,659.44, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.15 per cent to 26,140 and the Dow eased 0.34 per cent to 52,002.41. The VIX jumped more than 21 per cent to near 20 as the technology complex absorbed its worst week in about 18 months. Money rotated away from the AI winners that had led the market for months, and the Fear & Greed gauge slid toward extreme fear.
Asia’s Monday session opened in that shadow. The Nikkei fell more than 2 per cent at the open before paring to a loss of about 0.8 per cent near 64,791. South Korea’s KOSPI was down as much as 2.7 per cent early, then turned positive near 5,705. Taiwan’s weighted index is down about 0.9 per cent near 46,684. Shanghai is barely higher near 3,722 and Australia is up a quarter of a per cent. Hong Kong is shut for the holiday, so there is no Hang Seng read on the mood.
On the political side, the Russia sanctions waiver chatter dominated the overnight wires, with mixed follow-up on how final the decision is. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy accused Washington of pushing Kyiv toward a surrender framing, which the White House rejected. Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking on Meet the Press on Sunday, pinned recent inflation pressure on a temporary Iran-linked energy shock and stuck to a narrative that core prices are flatter underneath. Markets treated the oil move as the more immediate signal.
FX
The dollar is little changed rather than leading. The dollar index sits near 101.82, almost flat, as softer oil and a futures rebound offset residual caution after Friday’s equity rout. Sterling is near $1.3327, holding the $1.33 handle, and the euro is near $1.1230, with weekend unrest in France doing little so far to knock the cross. EUR/GBP is near 0.8425. USD/JPY is near 158.07, still hugging the 158 mark that keeps Japanese officials and the yen intervention debate on the radar. Risk currencies have not staged a full celebration; this looks more like a pause in dollar strength than a fresh risk-on bid.
Equities
The FTSE 100 closed Friday up 0.38 per cent at 10,881.90, a modest gain on a day when Wall Street was selling technology hard. Germany’s DAX last closed at 25,622.61 and the STOXX Europe 600 at 644.74. European futures pointed a touch lower into Monday’s cash open, so London and Frankfurt start with a softer tone even as US futures rebound. The swing factor remains the global chip and AI complex: if Tokyo and Seoul can hold their recovery into the European afternoon, that helps. If they fade again, Europe’s semiconductor names will feel it. UK banks stay in focus ahead of the 28 October Budget, where a higher surcharge on bank profits has been widely discussed. In the US, the earnings gauntlet this week is the main event, with Tesla and Netflix due Tuesday and Meta and SpaceX on Wednesday.
Bonds
Treasuries are steady after a strong week. The 10-year yield is near 5.065 per cent and the 30-year near 5.41 per cent, with the 10-year having posted its largest weekly fall in more than eight months as investors priced both growth and credit risk. The 2-year is near 4.72 per cent. In the UK, the 10-year gilt yields about 5.365 per cent, the 2-year about 4.87 per cent and the 30-year about 5.84 per cent. Germany’s 10-year Bund is near 3.43 per cent and Japan’s 10-year near 2.90 per cent. The bond market’s message has not flipped overnight: high yields are still attracting buyers who want a hedge against something breaking in credit or growth, even with oil still elevated and the Fed in blackout.
Commodities
Oil is softer, not broken. Brent has slipped about 1.9 per cent to near $107.81 and WTI about 1 per cent to near $100.35 after the Russia sanctions waiver chatter. That is a genuine giveback from last week’s push toward multi-month highs, but both contracts remain historically elevated and the Middle East risk premium has not vanished. Hormuz stays tense, with unverified reports of tanker incidents overnight and US Central Command continuing to say the strait is open. Gold futures are near $4,200, up about half a per cent, silver is up about 1 per cent near $57.88 and copper is firmer. Softer oil helps the inflation narrative for a day; it does not clear the energy file.
Today’s Economic Calendar
Already out — China Q3 GDP, industrial production, retail sales and unemployment — Growth beat at 4.5 per cent year on year with stronger retail and industrial figures, but fixed-asset investment remains weak and the market reaction was muted.
17:30 — Canada September consumer prices — A hot reading would complicate the Bank of Canada’s path and feed the broader North American inflation debate.
19:00 — US NAHB Housing Market Index for October — Forecast near 31 against 32 previously; another soft print would keep housing as a drag on the growth outlook.
This week — Tesla and Netflix on Tuesday; Meta and SpaceX on Wednesday — Roughly 15 per cent of the S&P 500 reports; capital-spending commentary from the AI complex is the real focus.
Through 27 to 28 October — Federal Reserve blackout — No official Fed speakers until after the FOMC decision, so data and earnings carry the narrative alone.
28 October — UK Budget — Bank surcharge and fiscal plans remain a live risk for UK financials and gilts.
Levels Traders Are Watching
These are reference points, not predictions. S&P 500 futures near 7,767 have Friday’s cash close of 7,659 underneath and the 7,800 round number just above. Nasdaq 100 futures near 29,775 are reclaiming ground after Friday’s rout, with 29,400 as the overnight pivot. The Nikkei near 64,791 has 65,000 overhead and Friday’s close near 65,324 still above. The US 10-year yield near 5.065 per cent has 5.10 per cent above and 5.00 per cent below; the 2-year near 4.72 per cent has 4.80 per cent as the level that would revive October rate-rise talk. In currencies, GBP/USD near $1.333 is holding $1.33, EUR/USD has $1.12 below, USD/JPY has 158 as the magnet and the dollar index has 102 above. Brent near $107.81 has $110 above and $105 below; WTI near $100 sits on a round number that will attract attention if it breaks either way. Gold is right on the $4,200 mark.
Relief Has a Short Leash
The balanced read this morning is cautiously constructive for risk, with conditions attached. Softer oil on the Russia waiver has given US futures a proper bounce after technology’s worst week in months, and Asia managed to pare a nasty open. That is better than carrying Friday’s panic straight into London. But the AI financing scare has not been disproved, only interrupted, China’s GDP beat bought almost no enthusiasm, and the Fed is silent until the end of October. A bounce built on an energy headline can reverse as fast as it arrived if Brent turns higher again or if midweek earnings disappoint on the spend story.
What would change the view? Nasdaq futures giving back the overnight gain, Brent reclaiming $110 and a weak tone from Tesla or Meta on capital spending would say the relief was borrowed. On the other side, a steady hold above Friday’s cash lows through the European session, oil staying soft near current levels and calm commentary from the mega-cap reporters would support the idea that the worst of the week can be contained. The markets worth watching are Nasdaq 100 futures, Brent, USD/JPY around 158, the US 2-year yield and gold near $4,200.
The opportunity on mornings like this is patience rather than chasing the first green screen: the oil move is helpful, the earnings week will decide whether it matters. The risk is treating a sanctions headline as a full reset of last week’s credit fears. For anyone newer to markets, the lesson is that the story that closed the week and the story that opens the next one are often different, and you need a process that can tell them apart. If you want to see how your own process holds up when the signals conflict, take the free Trader Assessment and find out where your edge is real and where it needs work.
