## Stock Market Outlook
Global equity markets are poised to end November on a high note, with major indices showing resilience and erasing most of the month’s earlier losses. The MSCI All Country World Index has climbed for five consecutive sessions, bringing its November decline to a mere 0.5%. This follows a remarkable seven-month winning streak, highlighting the underlying strength in the market.
In the United States, stocks rallied into the Thanksgiving holiday, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq all posting significant gains. This marks the best four-day performance since May 2025, fueled by growing optimism on Wall Street. A key driver behind this positive sentiment is the increasing expectation of an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. Weaker-than-expected economic data has reinforced this view, leading to a recovery from the recent selloff that was sparked by concerns over high valuations in the technology sector.
Today, US markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. However, Asian markets have continued the positive trend, with stocks rising 0.2% on Thursday. European markets are expected to have a quiet opening. Trading in the US will resume on Friday with a shortened session for Black Friday.
## Forex Market Outlook
The US Dollar is currently experiencing a period of weakness, with its recent strength being called into question. The dollar has been retreating against a basket of major currencies, and forecasts are pointing towards a bearish trend for the greenback extending into 2026. The aftermath of the 43-day US government shutdown continues to be a factor influencing currency markets.
Looking at the major currency pairs, the EUR/USD is showing strength and is attempting to establish a foothold above the 1.1600 level. The GBP/USD is also gaining ground, supported by recent developments in the UK budget. In contrast, the USD/JPY is climbing towards the 156.50 level, with the yen remaining in the intervention zone, which could prompt action from the Bank of Japan. The GBP/JPY is trading near a 15-month high, pressing against a key resistance level at 206.90.
The primary factors driving the forex market are the expectations of Fed easing, which is providing support for riskier currencies, and soft US retail and jobs data, which are shifting the odds in favor of a rate cut. The Thanksgiving holiday is expected to lead to reduced trading volumes, and traders should be mindful that market behavior can be different during long holiday periods.
Looking ahead, the US Dollar is expected to continue to weaken towards the end of 2025, while the Euro and British Pound are showing signs of relative strength. The situation with the Japanese Yen will be closely watched, as the potential for intervention from the Bank of Japan remains a key factor.
