Market Overview – November 19, 2025
As we head into Wednesday’s trading session, global markets are navigating a challenging environment marked by valuation concerns, shifting Federal Reserve expectations, and anticipation of key economic data releases. Here’s what traders should be watching today across equity and currency markets.
Stock Market Outlook: Caution Prevails
US equity markets extended their decline on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 posting its fourth consecutive day of losses—the longest losing streak in three months. The benchmark index closed down 0.83% at 6,617.32, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.07% to 46,091.74, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.21% to 22,432.85.
The pullback has been driven by mounting concerns over elevated valuations, particularly in technology stocks, and diminishing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. The S&P 500 has now declined approximately 4% from its October peak, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have fallen below their 50-day moving averages for the first time since late April—a significant technical threshold that suggests potential further weakness ahead.
Key Market Drivers Today
Nvidia Earnings: The most critical event for markets today will be Nvidia’s quarterly results, due after the closing bell on Wednesday. As the poster child of the artificial intelligence boom, Nvidia’s performance will serve as a crucial test for the sustainability of AI-driven market gains. The stock fell 2.8% on Tuesday in anticipation, and any disappointment could trigger broader selling across technology sectors.
Jobs Data: Thursday will bring the long-delayed September US jobs report, which was postponed due to the 43-day government shutdown. Early private market surveys have pointed to a cooling labor market, and data released Tuesday showed jobless benefits surged between mid-September and mid-October. This report will be instrumental in shaping Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Earnings Season Strength: Despite the recent selloff, corporate earnings have been remarkably strong. Year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 now stands at 16.9%, well above the 8.8% estimated at the start of October. This disconnect between strong fundamentals and market weakness suggests the current pullback may be more sentiment-driven than fundamentally justified.
Forex Market Outlook: Dollar Strength Continues
In currency markets, the US Dollar is maintaining its recent strength, with the Dollar Index (DXY) advancing past the 99.60 level to reach three-day highs. This dollar strength is being driven by a combination of risk-off sentiment and declining expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts.
EUR/USD: The euro continues to face pressure, trading around 1.1580 after three consecutive days of losses. The pair is testing four-day lows and appears poised for further weakness as the dollar benefits from safe-haven flows. Key support sits at the November low of 1.1468, while resistance remains in the mid-1.1600s where the 55-day and 100-day simple moving averages converge.
The European Central Bank has kept rates unchanged at 2.00% for a third straight meeting, with President Christine Lagarde indicating little appetite for further policy adjustments given that growth and inflation are both near target levels.
Market Positioning: Traders are currently pricing in roughly 11 basis points of additional Federal Reserve easing by year-end, down from earlier expectations. The backlog of US economic data, including the critical September jobs report, will be crucial in determining whether these expectations need to be revised further.
Trading Strategy for Today
Given the current market environment, traders should approach today’s session with heightened caution. The combination of technical weakness in equities, elevated volatility, and key event risk from Nvidia’s earnings suggests a defensive posture may be appropriate.
For equity traders, watching how markets react to Nvidia’s results will be critical. A positive surprise could spark a relief rally and potentially mark a near-term bottom for the recent selloff. However, disappointment could accelerate the decline and push the S&P 500 toward deeper support levels.
In forex markets, the dollar’s strength is likely to persist in the near term, particularly if risk-off sentiment continues. EUR/USD traders should watch the 1.1468 support level closely, as a break below could open the door to further losses toward the 1.1391 August low.
Conclusion
Today’s market environment is characterized by heightened uncertainty and multiple crosscurrents. While corporate earnings remain strong and some traders view the recent selloff as overdone, technical damage has been done and key event risks loom large. Prudent risk management and close attention to Nvidia’s results and upcoming economic data will be essential for navigating the days ahead.
Stay disciplined, manage your positions carefully, and remember that in volatile markets, preservation of capital is often the best strategy.
