## Stock Market Outlook
U.S. stock markets rallied on Monday, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.5% to close at 6,831, the Nasdaq Composite surging 2.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.8%. The gains were largely driven by optimism that a deal to end the 40-day U.S. government shutdown is imminent. A procedural vote in the Senate on Sunday night passed with bipartisan support, and a bill to reopen the government through January 30, 2026, is expected to pass the Senate, though its fate in the House remains uncertain.
The tech sector led the rally, with Nvidia (NVDA) up 6%, and both Tesla (TSLA) and Google (GOOG) gaining 3%. The VIX, a measure of market volatility, fell 7.76% to 17.60, indicating reduced investor anxiety. Gold prices also rose 2.7% to around $4,120 per ounce, its highest level in two weeks.
Looking ahead to today, November 11, 2025, U.S. stock futures are pointing to a slightly weaker open, with futures for the S&P 500 down 0.1%. Asian markets were mixed, with Chinese stocks down 0.9% on concerns about potential restrictions on rare earth exports. Today is a U.S. public holiday, Veterans Day, so the bond market will be closed and trading volumes are expected to be thin.
## Forex Market Outlook
In the forex market, risk-on sentiment prevailed on Monday, with the Australian dollar (AUD) gaining 0.72% against the U.S. dollar to $0.6538. The Aussie, often seen as a barometer for global growth, was also boosted by hawkish comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The Japanese yen (JPY) weakened against the dollar, with the USD/JPY pair rising 0.38% to 153.98, a nine-month low for the yen. The U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 99.59, and the euro (EUR/USD) dipped 0.03% to $1.1561.
The main driver in the forex market is the improved risk sentiment, fueled by the likely resolution of the U.S. government shutdown. The political outlook in the U.S. is also a factor, with some analysts believing that the shutdown has weakened the Democratic party, potentially leading to more pro-growth policies if Republicans maintain their congressional majority. However, with the Veterans Day holiday in the U.S., trading volumes are expected to be light today.
Central bank policy remains a key theme, with the market pricing in a 61% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. In contrast, the Bank of Japan is signaling a potential rate hike in December as the country’s economic outlook improves. This divergence in central bank policy could create trading opportunities in the weeks ahead.
