December 29, 2025
As we head into the final trading days of 2025, markets are characterized by holiday-thinned volumes and a general sense of optimism following a banner year for equities. Investors are looking to close out a strong year on a high note, with major indices hovering near record levels. This daily brief provides an outlook on what to expect in the stock and forex markets today.
Stock Market Outlook
The stock market is poised for a quiet session today, with futures indicating a flat open. This follows a week of strong gains that pushed the S&P 500 to new all-time highs. The index has surged an impressive 17.7% in 2025, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed 14.5%, marking its best year since 2021. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has been the standout performer, rocketing 22.2% year-to-date [1].
Historically, the final week of the year, often referred to as the “Santa Claus rally” period, has been bullish for stocks. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of over 1% during the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year [1]. While past performance is not indicative of future results, this historical trend provides a tailwind for equities.
Looking ahead, the economic calendar is light for the remainder of the week. The main event will be the release of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes on Wednesday. These minutes will be closely scrutinized for any clues about the central bank’s thinking on monetary policy heading into 2026.
| Index | 2025 YTD Performance | Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +17.7% | Neutral/Slightly Bullish |
| Dow Jones | +14.5% | Neutral/Slightly Bullish |
| Nasdaq | +22.2% | Neutral/Slightly Bullish |
Forex Market Outlook
The forex market is also expected to experience a quiet day, with most major currency pairs trading in narrow ranges. The holiday period has led to a significant reduction in trading volumes, resulting in a lack of clear directional momentum.
The US Dollar is trading with a mixed tone against its major counterparts. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs are holding onto their recent gains, with both currencies maintaining a short-term upward trend. However, further upside may be limited in the near term due to the thin market conditions [2].
There are no significant economic data releases scheduled for today that are likely to impact the forex market. As a result, price action is expected to be driven primarily by technical factors and overall market sentiment. Traders should be cautious of the potential for illiquid market conditions to exacerbate volatility.
Conclusion
In summary, today is expected to be a quiet day in the financial markets. The stock market is likely to consolidate near its recent highs, while the forex market is expected to trade in narrow ranges. Investors will be looking ahead to the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes on Wednesday for further direction.
References
[1] Stock market today: Live updates
[2] Forex Analysis & Reviews: 29.12.2025
