# Daily Market Brief: What to Expect Today
**December 25, 2025**
As the Christmas holiday begins, global markets are reflecting on a year of significant gains while positioning for the final trading days of 2025. US stock indices have reached new all-time highs, driven by a powerful tech-led rally, while the US dollar is experiencing notable year-end weakness against major currencies. This brief will provide an outlook on what to expect in the stock and forex markets today.
## Stock Market Outlook
### US Markets: Riding the Santa Claus Rally to Record Highs
US stock markets closed the holiday-shortened session on a high note, with the **S&P 500** and **Dow Jones Industrial Average** both posting fresh record closes [1]. The S&P 500 climbed 0.32% to finish at **6,932.05**, marking its 39th record close of the year. The Dow gained 0.60% to end at **48,731.16**, while the tech-heavy **Nasdaq Composite** rose 0.22% to **23,613.31**.
This “Santa Claus Rally” has been fueled by strong performances in the technology sector, with giants like **Alphabet (GOOGL)**, **Nvidia (NVDA)**, **Broadcom (AVGO)**, and **Amazon (AMZN)** leading the charge. The market\’s bullish sentiment is further supported by solid US GDP growth data and expectations of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 amid easing inflation [2]. With a year-to-date gain of over 17%, the S&P 500 is demonstrating robust momentum heading into the new year.
| Index | Closing Price (Dec 24, 2025) | Daily Change | Year-to-Date Gain |
| :— | :— | :— | :— |
| S&P 500 | 6,932.05 | +0.32% | >17% |
| Dow Jones | 48,731.16 | +0.60% | – |
| Nasdaq | 23,613.31 | +0.22% | – |
**Please note:** US markets are closed today, December 25th, for the Christmas holiday.
### UK Market: Quiet Trading Ahead of Holidays
The UK\’s **FTSE 100** index experienced a quiet, shortened session ahead of the Christmas break, closing down 0.19% at **9,870.68** [3]. Despite the slight dip, the index has had a strong year, with a year-to-date gain of over 21%. Trading volumes were low as investors wound down positions in pharmaceutical giants like **AstraZeneca (AZN)** and **GSK (GSK)**.
AstraZeneca has had a particularly stellar year, ending 2025 as the UK\’s most valuable company with a market capitalization of £211 billion, reflecting a 30% surge in its stock price [4].
**Please note:** The London Stock Exchange is closed today, December 25th, and tomorrow, December 26th, for the Christmas and Boxing Day holidays.
## Forex Market Outlook
### US Dollar Weakness Continues
The **US Dollar Index (DXY)** continues its downward trend, hitting a near 12-week low at **97.942** [5]. The dollar is on track for its worst annual performance in over two decades, having fallen 9.54% over the last 12 months. This weakness is driven by several factors:
> The US dollar weakened further to around 97.7 on Wednesday, hitting its lowest level since early October, as investors continued to bet that the Federal Reserve has room to cut rates next year. … Markets are pricing in two rate cuts in 2026 amid easing inflation, a moderating labor market, and President Trump’s push for looser policy, even as Fed officials remain divided. [5]
Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions, safe-haven flows into precious metals, and policy divergence with other central banks like the Bank of Japan are contributing to the dollar\’s decline.
### Strength in EUR, JPY, and Precious Metals
The **EUR/USD** pair has shown significant strength, rising 1.61% over the past month and over 13% in the last year. December has historically been a bullish month for the pair [6]. The **Japanese Yen** has also firmed up, supported by the Bank of Japan\’s recent rate hike and the potential for currency intervention.
Precious metals are reflecting the dollar\’s weakness and increased safe-haven demand. **Gold** has climbed to a record **$4,490.93** per ounce, while **Silver** has seen a remarkable 120% rally in 2025, currently trading at **$71.43** [7].
## What to Expect Today
With most major Western markets closed for Christmas, trading volumes are expected to be extremely light. The primary focus will be on Asian markets and any emerging geopolitical news. The trends of dollar weakness and stock market strength are likely to persist as the year draws to a close, but traders should remain cautious of potential volatility in thin market conditions.
—
### References
[1] [S&P 500 closes at another fresh record in holiday-shortened session: Live updates](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/23/stock-market-today-live-updates.html)
[2] [United States Dollar – Quote – Chart – Historical Data – News](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency)
[3] [FTSE 100 (^FTSE) Charts, Data & News](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EFTSE/)
[4] [FTSE 100\’s best and worst shares of 2025](https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/ftse-100s-best-and-worst-shares-2025-ii537654)
[5] [United States Dollar – Quote – Chart – Historical Data – News](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency)
[6] [Forex Seasonality – December 2025: Dollar Weakness into Year-End](https://www.forex.com/en/news-and-analysis/forex-seasonality-december-2025-dollar-weakness-into-year-end/)
[7] [2025\’s Top Market Lesson: Silver\’s Record Rally and the Anatomy of a Momentum Breakout](https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-and-analysis/2025-s-top-market-lesson-silver-s-record-rally-and-the-anatomy-of-a-momentum-breakout-12-25-2025/)
