Good morning traders and investors. As we head into Thursday, November 20th, 2025, the financial markets are showing signs of renewed optimism following a critical earnings report that has helped restore confidence in the artificial intelligence sector. After a turbulent week that saw major indices snap four-day losing streaks, today’s session promises to be pivotal as traders digest key economic data and position themselves for the remainder of the week.
Stock Market Outlook: Relief Rally Takes Hold
US equity markets closed Wednesday’s session on a positive note, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average edging up 0.10% to 46,138.77, the S&P 500 gaining 0.38% to close at 6,642.16, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advancing 0.59% to 22,564.23. This marked the end of a four-day losing streak for both the Dow and S&P 500, providing much-needed relief to investors who had grown increasingly concerned about market direction.
The catalyst for this turnaround was Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report, which exceeded Wall Street expectations and provided a robust revenue forecast for the fourth quarter. The AI chip leader’s shares surged 5% in after-hours trading, having already closed the regular session up 2.8%. This performance has been crucial in alleviating fears about a potential bubble in the artificial intelligence industry, concerns that had recently roiled global markets.
The positive sentiment extended beyond Nvidia, lifting other technology stocks in sympathy. Alphabet soared following a wave of positive reviews for its newly released Gemini AI model, while Advanced Micro Devices gained 2.8% in after-hours trading and Palantir Technologies jumped 4%. This broad-based strength in AI-related stocks suggests that investor confidence in the sector’s long-term growth prospects remains intact.
Looking at Thursday’s pre-market action, futures are pointing to further gains. S&P 500 futures have risen 1.3%, while Nasdaq 100 contracts have climbed 1.8%, indicating that the relief rally may have legs. European markets are also set to open higher, suggesting a positive global risk appetite.
However, it’s important to note that despite Wednesday’s gains, the S&P 500 remains more than 3% below its October highs, indicating that the market still has work to do to reclaim its previous momentum. Market breadth on Wednesday was mixed, with declining issues outnumbering advancers by a 1.59-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 1.54-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq, suggesting that the rally was somewhat concentrated in mega-cap technology stocks.
Key Market Drivers Today
The primary focus for traders today will be the release of the delayed September US jobs report. Due to the record-long government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has announced it will not publish the October employment report separately but will instead combine nonfarm payrolls for that month with November’s report. This creates an information vacuum that could lead to heightened volatility as traders react to the September data.
Employment figures have taken on increased importance as concerns about a cooling labor market persist. The Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at each of its September and October meetings, and the jobs data will be scrutinized for clues about the central bank’s next move.
Adding to the uncertainty, minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting revealed that policymakers cautioned that lower borrowing costs could undermine the fight against inflation. This hawkish tone briefly caused indices to pare gains during Wednesday’s regular session and serves as a reminder that the Fed’s path forward remains data-dependent.
In the retail sector, Target’s disappointing quarterly results serve as a cautionary tale about consumer spending. The retailer’s shares fell 2.8% after reporting a bigger-than-expected drop in quarterly sales, as cash-strapped US consumers cut back on discretionary spending. All eyes will be on Walmart, which is due to report earnings before the bell on Thursday, to see if this weakness is sector-wide or company-specific.
Forex Market Outlook: Dollar Dominance Continues
The US dollar remains broadly strong across major currency pairs, supported by the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on further rate cuts and relatively robust US economic data. This strength is putting pressure on other major currencies, creating challenging conditions for forex traders.
The EUR/USD pair continues to struggle, trading below its 50-day exponential moving average. The euro faces significant headwinds, with potential downside targets at the 1.15 level and, if that breaks, the 1.14 level where the 200-day EMA resides. This technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance for EUR/USD remains to the downside, and traders should be cautious about taking long positions until the pair can reclaim the 1.17 level.
GBP/USD is facing similar challenges, with the British pound encountering heavy resistance near the 1.32 level. The 200-day EMA sits just above this key psychological level, creating a formidable barrier for bulls. On the downside, the 1.30 level represents significant support, being a large round figure that has proven itself as a short-term floor. However, if this support gives way, the market could see a more substantial unraveling of the pound’s recent gains. The pair is currently trading around 1.3047, down 0.09% over the past 24 hours.
The Japanese yen has been particularly weak, falling 1% and pushing USD/JPY above the 157 level, its highest point since mid-January. The yen’s weakness accelerated following the release of the Federal Reserve minutes, which reinforced expectations that US interest rates will remain elevated for longer. The key resistance level to watch is 158.207, which represents the year’s high and the most important bullish barrier for 2025. A sustained break above this level could open the door to further yen weakness.
In cross-currency trading, EUR/GBP continues to show relative strength, with the euro maintaining its upward bias against the British pound. The pair is supported by its 50-day EMA and has a measured-move target near the 0.89 level. The 0.8750 level, which previously acted as significant resistance, continues to serve as a short-term floor. This technical setup favors buying dips in EUR/GBP rather than attempting to short the pair.
Commodities Watch
Gold has come under pressure, sliding to the $4,055 support level as dollar strength and reduced Federal Reserve rate cut expectations weigh on the precious metal. After reaching as high as $4,091, gold has experienced a bearish rejection, and traders anticipating another retest of lower support levels may find short opportunities toward the $4,000 mark.
Oil markets have extended their biggest weekly drop, pressured by rising US fuel inventories that suggest weaker demand. This weakness in crude prices reflects broader concerns about global economic growth and energy consumption patterns.
Trading Strategy for Today
Given the current market dynamics, traders should approach today’s session with a balanced perspective. The positive momentum from Nvidia’s earnings provides a supportive backdrop for equities, particularly in the technology sector. However, the delayed jobs report introduces significant event risk that could trigger volatility in both directions.
For equity traders, focusing on AI and technology stocks that have demonstrated strong fundamentals makes sense in the current environment. However, position sizing should be conservative ahead of the employment data, and stop-losses should be in place to protect against unexpected negative surprises.
In the forex market, the trend remains your friend, and that trend continues to favor US dollar strength. EUR/USD and GBP/USD both face significant technical resistance, and short positions on rallies may offer favorable risk-reward ratios. However, traders should be mindful that the jobs report could trigger sharp moves, so appropriate risk management is essential.
For those trading gold, the current technical setup suggests further downside potential, but the $4,000 level represents a significant psychological support that may attract buyers. A break below this level would be particularly bearish for the precious metal.
Conclusion
Thursday’s trading session promises to be eventful, with the delayed jobs report serving as the main catalyst for market moves. While Nvidia’s strong earnings have provided a boost to risk sentiment, the underlying concerns about labor market weakness and the Federal Reserve’s policy path remain very much in play. Traders should remain nimble, keep position sizes manageable, and be prepared for potential volatility as the market digests key economic data.
The relief rally in equities may have further room to run if the jobs data comes in better than expected, but any disappointment could quickly reverse recent gains. In the forex market, US dollar strength looks set to continue, putting pressure on major currency pairs. As always, disciplined risk management and a clear trading plan will be essential for navigating today’s market conditions.
Stay focused, trade smart, and remember that in volatile markets, preservation of capital is just as important as capturing opportunities.
