Wall Street is ready to buy the bounce, and even the AI trade, just not Nvidia. Dow futures lead the way into the US cash open, AMD, Broadcom and ASML are all higher before the open, and the one chip giant left out is the one whose chief executive is now the subject of a board investigation. Falling oil is doing a lot of quiet work underneath, and Tuesday’s US inflation figures are the real test of whether any of this lasts.
The situation right now
Dow Jones futures are up about 1.1% near 51,929, S&P 500 futures are up about 0.6% near 7,449, and Nasdaq 100 futures trail with a gain of roughly 0.4%. That order matters. Last week the S&P 500 had its worst week since April 2025 after Thursday’s AI sell-off, and Friday’s repair was led by chips. This morning the money is spreading out instead, into banks, airlines, healthcare and the big platform names.
Fear has eased as well. The VIX, Wall Street’s main gauge of expected volatility, is down about 8.5% at around 23.5. That is calmer than last week, but still well above the levels that usually go with a relaxed market.
What has changed since this morning
Three things have moved since the Morning Market Brief. Oil has slid hard: Brent was close to flat at about $98 before London opened and is now near $94.70, down about 3.7%, even after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he sees little hope of a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran. The dollar has eased, with the dollar index down about 0.4%, which has let the pound climb back to around $1.341. And Nvidia’s overnight loss has deepened rather than healed, from roughly 3.4% early on to close to 5% before the US open.
Europe has also firmed up. The DAX is up about 1.1% and back above 26,000, the FTSE 100 is up about 0.8%, and the Stoxx 600 has gained close to 1%, led by banks after Credit Agricole proposed a tie-up with Banco BPM and UniCredit raised its profit targets.
Nvidia stands alone
The biggest US story before the open is a governance problem, not an earnings problem. Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang has acknowledged a relationship with an executive at MegaSpeed, a Nvidia chip buyer, whom US officials reportedly regard as linked to Chinese intelligence. Nvidia’s board has opened an independent investigation, the company has said it has no reason to believe any secrets were compromised, and Huang remains in charge. China has dismissed the allegations, and House committee chairs have asked for a briefing.
The useful point for traders is how the rest of the chip sector is reacting. AMD is up about 3.4% before the open, ASML about 2.9% and Broadcom about 2.6%, while Nvidia trades near $177.60, down close to 5% from Friday’s $186.64 close. The market is treating this as a problem for one company and its leadership, not a verdict on AI spending. That is a healthier reaction than a sector-wide sell-off, but it leaves the Nasdaq carrying its single largest name with a weight on it.
There is a second-order angle too. The story lands a week before President Xi and President Trump are due to meet at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, and anything that sours that meeting matters for chip export rules.
Stocks moving before the open
Airlines are among the cleanest winners from cheaper fuel, with Delta up about 3.2% and United about 3%. Banks are firmer, with JPMorgan up about 1.8% and Goldman Sachs about 1.5%, helped by the strong European bank session. Amazon is up about 2.8%, Meta about 2.1%, and Microsoft and Alphabet both about 1.7%. Eli Lilly is up about 2.5%.
On the losing side, crypto-linked shares are following Bitcoin lower, with Strategy down about 3.6% and Coinbase about 2.4%. Super Micro Computer is down about 2.5%, and CoreWeave has slipped around 3% ahead of its results on Tuesday, where investors will look hard at its debt.
The dollar gives a little back
The dollar index is down about 0.4% near 101.9. Sterling is up about 0.5% at roughly $1.341 and the euro is near $1.119, while the yen has firmed slightly to about 157.9 per dollar. This looks like the dollar giving back some of Friday’s jobs-driven strength rather than a change of direction. Friday’s employment report was strong enough to keep a Federal Reserve rate rise in play before year-end, and that has not changed this morning.
Bonds are waiting
Treasuries are barely moving. The 10-year yield is around 4.86% and the two-year near 4.53%, so the bond market is clearly saving its energy for Tuesday’s consumer price index. In London, the 10-year gilt yield has eased to about 5.13% as oil falls, a reminder of how closely UK borrowing costs are tracking energy prices at the moment.
Oil slides, gold climbs
Brent is down about 3.7% near $94.70 and US crude is down about 3% near $88.10, after Brent’s 17% fall last week. The futures market is pricing a calmer Gulf after President Trump said further strikes on Iran look unlikely, although ships around the Strait of Hormuz are still being attacked and the diplomatic picture is far from settled. Gold is up about 1.1% near $4,119 an ounce, with silver and copper higher too, helped by the weaker dollar. Bitcoin is down about 1.7% near $74,300 and Ether has lost about 5%, so crypto is still sitting this rally out.
What is still to come today
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at 13:40 UK time, before US cash trading starts at 14:30. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee follows at 15:00, the New York Fed’s survey of consumer inflation expectations lands at 16:00, and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks at 17:15. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is due in Zurich at 17:25, and the US Treasury sells three-year notes this evening UK time. Any hint from Fed speakers that a hike is being prepared would hit the rally where it is most exposed, in the rate-sensitive names that are leading today.
Levels traders are watching
For the S&P 500, Friday’s close at 7,376.86 is the first reference: an open well above it keeps this a continuation of Friday’s repair, while a slip back below it would say the morning optimism has already faded. For the Nasdaq Composite, Friday’s close at 24,579 matters, because Nvidia alone can drag it below that line. For the Dow, 51,286 is the line to hold. Brent around $95 is the oil reference after this morning’s drop, and $1.34 is the level for sterling. These are reference points, not targets.
Where this leaves us
The read into the open is cautiously constructive, but narrow in an unusual way. The bounce is broad across sectors and confident enough to lift the rest of the chip industry, yet the biggest company in the AI trade is being marked down on a question nobody can price yet. Cheaper oil is the main support, because it takes some pressure off inflation and off a Fed that is openly worried about prices.
The evidence for the view is the spread of gains, the drop in the VIX and the strength in airlines and banks. The risk is that it all leans on oil staying lower and on Tuesday’s inflation figures behaving. A hot core CPI reading would revive talk of a Fed hike and could undo this in an afternoon. Any fresh detail from Nvidia’s investigation, or a sharp rebound in oil on Gulf headlines, would also change the picture.
The view would be wrong if Nvidia’s losses start dragging AMD, Broadcom and ASML lower after the open, because then this stops being one company’s problem and becomes a sector one again. The markets to watch are Nvidia against the rest of the chip sector, Brent around $95, the two-year Treasury yield into CPI, and whether the Dow can hold its lead once US cash trading starts.
For newer traders, the lesson today is that one stock’s bad news does not have to become the whole market’s bad news. Watching how related stocks react is often the quickest way to judge whether a problem is contained. If you want to see where your own trading stands before a week like this, the Samuel & Co Trading assessment is a sensible next step.
