Election nights are exciting. Results flash up state by state, commentators make bold calls and futures markets jump around in real time. It is tempting to trade every twist. For most people, that is a mistake. Election night combines thin trading, incomplete information and strong emotions, which is exactly the mix that leads to poor decisions.
Why early counts are misleading
Votes are not counted in a neat, random order. Some areas report quickly, others take hours or days. Postal votes and early votes may be counted before or after votes cast on the day, depending on local rules, and they can lean towards one party. That means the early picture can shift dramatically as the night goes on. Traders who react to the first wave of results are often reacting to an incomplete and biased sample.
Thin markets exaggerate moves
Major results usually arrive outside normal trading hours for London and New York. Futures and currency markets are open, but far fewer people are trading. With fewer buyers and sellers, prices can move more on smaller orders. A sharp drop in futures overnight does not always mean the same move will hold when full trading resumes. Our Morning Market Brief after the 2026 US midterms shows how big those overnight moves can be.
Spreads and slippage cost more
When trading is thin, the gap between the buying and selling price, known as the spread, tends to widen. Stop-loss orders may be filled well away from where you set them. Even if your view on the election turns out to be right, those extra costs can eat into or wipe out any gain.
Opinions get in the way
Elections are personal. Many people have strong views about who should win, and that can cloud judgement. It is easy to buy because you hope for one outcome, or sell because you fear another, rather than because the market evidence supports it. Successful traders try to separate what they want to happen from what is likely to happen.
What to do instead
The better approach is to do the work before the night itself. Map out a few scenarios, such as a clean win for one party or a split result, and think about how key markets like the dollar, Treasury yields and shares might respond. Decide in advance what you would do in each case and how much you are willing to risk. Then reduce position sizes going into the event, so that a surprise does not cause serious damage.
Many experienced traders simply wait. They let the results settle, watch how markets behave once full liquidity returns and then act with better information. Missing the first move is usually far less costly than being on the wrong side of a wild swing. For more on why first moves can mislead, see our guide to election risk in markets.
The beginner’s takeaway
Election night is great entertainment and poor trading conditions. Early counts mislead, thin markets exaggerate moves and emotions run high. Preparing scenarios in advance, keeping positions small and waiting for clearer information will protect you far better than trying to trade every headline.
Discipline around big events is one of the hardest trading skills to build. If you want to see where yours stands, try the free Samuel & Co Trading Trader Assessment.
