750 pips on WTI? Oil have some of that!

750 pips on WTI? Oil have some of that!


Stephen Witham

Forex Trader & Technical Analyst

Trading the Forex markets on behalf of Samuel and Co Trading in Watford. I am a Technical Trader, here to take on the game and turn the sceptics into believers. Join my journey as I release weekly technical analysis and trade breakdowns – opening the floor to feedback and conversation.

This week, I’ll be updating you on my technical analysis on Oil from the past few weeks, which is now moving towards completion.

Oil Daily –

Quick screenshot on last week’s article where my trade had hit my profit target 1.

Now with regards to my profit target 2. I have some good news.. and some bad news.

Let me explain…

WTI Daily –

So I’ll start with the bad news, I was unable to trade last week due to illness, which is never a good idea to trade whilst you’re not in the right frame of mind, so I decided to take a few days off. However! The good news is – Oil continued to move in the direction of my analysis and is moving ever closer to my profit target 2! Only annoying this for me is I was not able to take the trade (yes – sympathy votes for missed pips are more than welcome ☹).

However, there will always be another trade. What I’ll do is break down when and where I would have entered, as well as how I may look to trade this commodity moving forward.

WTI 1 Hour –

So as you can see here price is well on its way to my profit target 2, huge shame I was unable to catch an entry on this trade! However, if I was trading my re-entry for profit target 2 would have come on Monday 24th June as displayed in the image above. After taking profit at my first target, I wouldn’t have wanted to jump straight back in as price may have completely fallen back down toward the $51 mark and eaten up pretty much all my profits I had just taken. We can see from Friday’s & Monday’s price action that the market had tried to pull back multiple times to break back down below the 0.382 Fib level ($56.5), but struggled to break or close below – the bears remained in full control. With this strong support level at $56.5, the confirmation for me to enter would have come from the pin bar rejection and dynamic resistance we had from the 50EMA. Here I would have entered for my Profit Target 2. My stop loss placement sitting 130 pips below my entry – giving me a 2:1 risk/reward upon hitting target 2 / 0.618 Fib / $60.3.

WTI Daily –

I’ll be interested to see what may come after my profit target 2 is hit (IF being the keyword of course). As the 0.618 Fib sits bang on the $60 support and resistance level, as well as being a psychological whole value. We could see the bulls continue on with the full force, break through to the upside and head towards the $66 level. Or we may see a rejection at this 0.618 Fib level and see price head back down towards the $50-$54 mark. There’s a possibility for me to enter either of these price movements – however, I will be waiting to see how the market reacts to this level before entering the buy or sell side. I’ll be sure to keep you posted over the coming days/weeks as ever.

Although, I personally didn’t manage to catch the 2nd entry on Oil. If I did manage to take, as well as the market hitting my profit target 2 – this would result in an overall move of around 750 pips.

As it stands at the time of writing this today, Monday 1st July 2019 – I am around 30 pips away from my Profit Target 2.

Let’s see if the move completes! Thanks for your time today and as always, I look forward to your thoughts.

image sources:uktradingview.com

Disclaimer: Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The information presented in this article is not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only. Not to be taken as financial advice.

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